A/U: this signal is up 40 pips now:
Kiwi: this has triggered a new TS signal AND broken above the major triangle trend line BUT I would be wanting to see this close above the trend line on the daily chart before taking this signal. It might also be better to wait until after FOMC in case any USD bounce undermines this move:
Kiwi 4hr:
Kiwi monthly: one would expect that any bullish continuation would see a test of the previous high up in the 0.88 region:
Cable: down but still above the daily support trend line:
GBP/AUD: H&S still forming up:
GBP/AUD H&S?
It looks like the GBP/AUD H&S pattern could be setting up here. I would need to confirm that the tomorrow's daily candle closes below the neck line first though.
The 'height' of the pattern is almost 1000 pips which is huge. Any bearish follow through move below the neck line would suggest price might venture back down to near the weekly 200 EMA:
Red flag EUR data and Putin speaking in a few hours (9 pm my time). Putin's talk could trigger a bout of 'risk off'. I'm stopped out of my A/U long for 20 pips and I closed my E/J long too.
Tue 18th March (12 noon)
A/U: this TS signal might struggle now in light of comments from the RBA that the AUD is too high. I've locked in 20 pips on my open trade and will see how it goes from there.
AUD red flag data out shortly.
Tue 18th March (6.30 am)
Stocks enjoyed a bit of a 'relief rally' but most FX pairs look like they're waiting now for FOMC.
Indices: The USDX is a bit lower and the EURX a bit higher and both are still aligned for 'risk on' as per my w/e notes.
USDX: this is trading a bit lower and getting down close to the lows from last October. I've posted the daily chart and highlighted the October low. I've also posted a weekly chart to show that any continued bearish move would soon meet more support in the 38.2% fib level of the 2010-2011 bear move. Wednesday's FOMC might dictate what happens to the USDX from this point though:
4 hr
Weekly:
EURX: ticking higher:
S&P500: have enjoyed a bit of a 'relief rally' as the Ukraine situation remains relatively contained for the time being:
Forex:
E/U: this pair continues to chop around under the major monthly triangle trend line. This region is also the top of the monthly Ichimoklu Cloud and thus is a HUGE resistance zone for this pair. I would not be expecting any free flowing trend to set in whilst this pair struggles at this level. I would also not expect anything too much to happen until after FOMC:
E/U 4 hr
E/U monthly: showing major triangle pattern:
E/U monthly Ichimoku showing price struggling at the top of the monthly Cloud:
E/J: this pair has bounced off the major 61.8% fib level from the 2008-2012 bear move. I put an order to 'long' at this fib back when the triangle break evolved. This order has now been filled:
E/J 4 hr:
E/J monthly: showing the significance of the 61.8% fib level:
A/U: the bullish 'inverse H&S' looks to be following through still. I am long here from the 0.905 'neck line':
A/U daily showing inverse H&S:
A/U 4 hr: I received a TS signal to 'long' off my 4 am candle:
Cable: this is still 'marking time' under the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA:
G/U 4hr:
G/U monthly:
Kiwi: this also continues to struggle at its major resistance zone of a monthly chart triangle trend line:
Kiwi 4 hr:
Kiwi monthly:
U/J: still triangle bound:
EUR/AUD: ditto here:
AUD/NZD: this technical pattern might be the one! Is this the long awaited 'bottom' now for this pair as it seems to form up in a bullish 'double bottom'?
GBP/AUD: I'm watching this 'neck line':
Silver and Gold: both metals have paused under key resistance levels. I wouldn't expect too much more movement here until after FOMC. Any bullish USD shift could see both of these pull back:
Gold: has paused under the weekly 200 EMA:
Silver: paused under the $21.50 level:
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